{
  "slug": "prediction-horizon",
  "term": "Prediction horizon",
  "aliases": [
    "forecast horizon"
  ],
  "definition": "A prediction horizon is the future interval after a prediction time in which a specified target event is evaluated.",
  "note": "State the time origin, event and interval boundaries. A horizon differs from the historical input window and from achieved alarm-to-event delay; an event inside a ten-day horizon can occur much sooner than ten days. Lu et al. use failure within the next ten days as their target. [lu-fast20]",
  "limitations": [
    {
      "text": "A horizon does not guarantee enough time for migration or repair; measure actual warning delays and missed events separately.",
      "citationIds": [
        "lu-fast20"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "temporal-validation",
    "grouped-cross-validation",
    "recall",
    "smart",
    "failure-label"
  ],
  "citations": [
    {
      "id": "lu-fast20",
      "title": "Lu et al. Making Disk Failure Predictions SMARTer! FAST 2020, section 4, p. 159: prediction horizon.",
      "url": "https://www.usenix.org/system/files/fast20-lu.pdf",
      "accessed": "2026-10-14"
    }
  ],
  "status": "shipping",
  "advantages": [],
  "supersedes": [],
  "supersededBy": [],
  "firstSeen": null,
  "lastSeen": null,
  "updated": "2026-10-14"
}