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false-positive-rate · shipping · also FPR, false alarm rate

False positive rate

The false positive rate is the fraction of observed negative cases incorrectly classified as positive at a specified decision threshold.

Related Observatory article: False positive rate on hesela.com

FPR = FP / (FP + TN), with FP false positives and TN true negatives, so FPR equals one minus specificity. It is undefined without observed negatives. The fraction of alerts that are false is instead FP / (TP + FP), or one minus precision when alerts exist. [1] State the denominator whenever using the ambiguous phrase false alarm rate. Low FPR need not imply high precision when failures are rare. [2]

Relations

related
precision, recall, class-prevalence, smart

Citations

  1. scikit-learn: model evaluation, confusion-matrix rates. (accessed 2026-10-12)
  2. Saito and Rehmsmeier. The Precision-Recall Plot Is More Informative than the ROC Plot When Evaluating Binary Classifiers on Imbalanced Datasets. PLOS ONE 10(3): e0118432 (2015). (accessed 2026-10-12)
  3. Hesela: disk failure prediction, metric denominators and a synthetic alert-count example. (accessed 2026-10-12)

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